• Nankai’s Team Uses Big Data to Forecast the Epidemic Transmission


    Confronting with the coronavirus epidemic, Nankai University’s scientific research team fights against the epidemic with data. Prof. Senzhong Huang of Nankai University’s School of Statistics and Data Science and his cooperating teams use their profession to serve the society. They regularly forecast and analyze the epidemic data in order to provide data support for scientific prevention.

    Map of novel coronavirus pneumonia, confirmed case number and predicted time series

    The project is based on the data chain of the total confirmed case number released by the National Health Commission. With the methodology of applied propagation dynamics and the model theory of pervasive SEIR model constructed by Prof. Senzhong Huang, the project analyzes the data related to the epidemic situation of new coronavirus pneumonia, and studies and judges the development of the epidemic situation and the efficiency of epidemic prevention and control through EpiSIX, a program developed by Nankai University’s Zhiying Health Data Research Center.

    Calendar of the number of confirmed novel coronavirus pneumonia in China

    From January 30th  to February 14th, the research team issued forecasts every three days, and has issued six consecutive epidemic transmission forecasts. The research team also adjusted the prediction and evaluation indexes in time according to the change of epidemic situation. The forecast area is further refined, from the original forecast of the epidemic situation of the whole country, Hubei Province and Wuhan respectively to the forecast of all provinces and cities in China.

    The project is supported by Nankai University’s Emergent Scientific Research Project for Epidemic Prevention and Control “2019-nCoV novel coronavirus epidemic study: Evaluation and suggestions on the policy of diffusion and disease control brought by regional population migration”. It also gains support and instruction from Ministry of Education, National Health Commission, etc. The results gained high attention.

     (Translated by Yuchen Shi, Edited by Davide Francolino and JianjingYun)